About CO-MICC

 

CO-MICC – Supporting risk assessment and adaptation at multiple spatial scales: CO-development of Methods to utilize uncertain multi-model based Information on freshwater-related hazards of Climate Change

Motivation

It is state of the art that multi-model ensembles (MME) of future freshwater-related hazards of climate change (CC) (e.g. derived by driving a number of global hydrological models by the output of a number of climate models) are optimal for informing CC risk management. However, studies on how to best utilize MMEs in CC risk management, in particular for identification of adaptation measures, are lacking.

Goals

The main project goals are (1) to co-develop, together with stakeholders, methods for providing and utilizing MME data on freshwater-related hazards for risk and adaptation assessments at various spatial scales, and (2) to provide these data at a web portal in a suitable way, in order to increase availability and applicability of information for different types of end-users, with a focus on how to address uncertainties.

Approach

Co-development of PUNI (Providing and Utilizing eNsemble Information) methods will be done jointly by global hydrological modelers, scientists investigating co-development methods and societal information needs, boundary organizations and stakeholders (end-users). They will all participate in three stakeholder dialogues at the global scale (end-user industries), transboundary scale (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia), and river basin scale (Ebro). PUNI methods will be co-developed by testing alternative ways of presenting MME data in support of exemplary CC risk assessments in each stakeholder dialogue in an iterative manner, based on MME data that are either available or generated specifically in the project in response to end-user input.

Results

Development of a tailor-made data portal with state-of-the-art technology
Development of a tailor-made data portal with state-of-the-art technology

Expected results include a handbook on PUNI methods and a web portal at UNESCO’s International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change where end-users from around the world will be able to access hydrological MME data for their region of interest for free and in a way that suits their needs, e.g. by selecting a hazard indicator for low flows as well as its spatial and temporal aggregation.

Project Participants

 

Logo of the Goethe Universität Frankfurt Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt (GU)
Petra Döll (leading PI)
Fabian Kneier (project coordinator)
Laura Woltersdorf
Thedini Asali Peiris
ICWRGC Logo International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC)
Harald Köthe (PI)
Stephan Dietrich
Carina Zang
Logo of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Yoshihide Wada (PI)
Yusuke Satoh
Kisters AG Kisters AG (KAG)
Michael Natschke (PI)
Dirk Schwanenberg
Enrique Cano Scheurich
Le Mans Université Le Mans Université (UM)
Yamna Djellouli
Logo of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
Jan Polcher
Logo of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V.
Dieter Gerten (PI)
Lauren Seaby

 

Latest Activities

Project meeting

The first project meeting with all project partners was held as a video conference in June. The main objectives included discussions on the outputs of the modelling group activities and the planning of the stakeholder workshops.

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Data Portal Group Meeting

Planning of the infrastructure for the CO-MICC web portal to visualize model results and their uncertainties.

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Modelling groups meeting

The major outcome of the meeting was an agreed set of simulations covering different aspects of uncertainty and outputs as well as planning common activities pending the next meeting.

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Kick-off meeting

The kick-off meeting took place in December. The main objectives included planning common activities pending the next meeting as well as embedding CO-MICC in further ERA4CS activities.

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FAQ

What does co-development of PUNI methods mean?
  • PUNI stands for Providing and Utilizing eNsemble Information
  • CO-MICC provides useful and useable information for climate change (CC) risk assessment and adaptation to CC
  • Ensemble information: Output of an ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs): hazard = potential future change of hydrological variables/indicators due to CC, with spatial resolution of 0.5°
  • Uncertainty quantification
Who develops the PUNI methods?
  • knowledge translators and disseminators = “CC-risk experts/boundary organizations“ (upper level, main users of the portal) e.g.: Experts in ministries of the states (water resources, agriculture), meteorological services (climate change departments)
  • research centres (universities and national research centres)
  • those who need to assess CC risks and adapt (lower level, stakeholders/end-users who get advice from A and may use the portal with info’s for non-experts) e.g.: farmers, water users (cities), industries
Which regions are addressed within CO-MICC?
  • From local to global: CO-MICC delivers data on a spatial scale of 0.5° and analyzes basins larger than 20000 km²
  • Local scale: The Ebro catchment in Spain
  • Regional (transboundary) scale: the MAT region (Morocco, Algeria, Tunesia) with a focus on the following basins: Moulouya (Morocco-Algeria), Chelif (Algeria), Medjerda (Algeria-Tunisia)
  • Global scale
How does CO-MICC address risk assessment?
Illustration of the core concepts of the WGII AR5. Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system (left) and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation (right) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. At the top of the figure, risk management approaches that are suitable for water management are indicated. Freshwater-related risks can be addressed by an iterative risk-management approach (“adaptive water management”) that is based on risk assessment. They can be reduced by climate change (CC) mitigation, i.e. reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by adaptation to climate change and by reducing vulnerability and exposure to hazards.
Illustration of the core concepts of the WGII AR5. Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system (left) and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation (right) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. At the top of the figure, risk management approaches that are suitable for water management are indicated. Freshwater-related risks can be addressed by an iterative risk-management approach (“adaptive water management”) that is based on risk assessment. They can be reduced by climate change (CC) mitigation, i.e. reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by adaptation to climate change and by reducing vulnerability and exposure to hazards.
Which kind of data will be addressed?
Only model data from ensemble simulations of large-scale hydrological models, compatible with the ISIMIP protocol (https://www.isimip.org/).

Contact

Logo of the Goethe Universität Frankfurt

Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

Project coordinator
Fabian Kneier
Mail: f.kneier(at)em.uni-frankfurt.de
Phone: +49 (0) 69-798 40220
Room: Geozentrum, 3.215

Mailing address
Institute of Physical Geography
Goethe University Frankfurt
Altenhöferallee 1
60438 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Visitors
Campus Riedberg
Geozentrum
Altenhöferallee 1
60438 Frankfurt am Main