Impact Modelling

Future climate conditions can be estimated by driving general circulation models (GCMs) based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The future climate scenarios obtained in this way can be used as input in global hydrological models (GHMs) to derive future freshwater-related hazards of climate change. It is state-of-the-art to consider multiple RCP-GCM-GHM combinations rather than a single one in climate impact assessments: this is known as the multi-model ensemble (MME) approach.

The CO-MICC MME is based on a selection of multiple RCPs, GCMs and GHMs (see pyramid scheme) that builds on the framework provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Bias-corrected GCM-driven simulations of multiple GHMs were carried out to produce MME data of terrestrial hydrological climate variables (thCVs) at global scale. The MME data of thCVs were aggregated at different scales and used to derive MME data of hydrological climate impact indicators (HCIIs), which are provided in the Data Portal.

For more detailed information about the different stages of the modelling process, please consult the following entries: